Rebuilt · August 2, 2026 · Fed on hold, hike risk live
The Six Stages,
Re-dated
The April build assumed the cycle rolled over into a cutting Fed. That assumption is gone. Rates have been flat at 3.50–3.75% for five straight meetings, three voters dissented in favor of a hike, and the long end is at levels last seen in 2007. A cycle that can't get cut short by easing runs longer and lands harder — so every stage here moves right, and the bond stage moves last.
What broke the old map
Rate path inverted. Market went from pricing 2–3 cuts to pricing 1–2 hikes. September hike odds ~55% after the July hold.
The oil shock unwound. WTI peaked near $113 in April, now ~$85. Headline CPI fell 4.2% → 3.5%; core cooled to 2.6%.
Long end broke out anyway. 30yr at 5.25%, highest since 2007. That's term premium and fiscal, not growth.
Leadership flipped back to tech. Q1 was energy's (+34%); Q2 large-cap tech ran +43%. The AI trade re-took the tape.
Growth is quietly failing. Q2 GDP 1.5% vs 2.1% expected. Payrolls +57K in June; labor force down 1.1M.
Gold and BTC both broke down. Gold has lagged the S&P by ~30% since February. BTC printed a 21-month low at $57.7K.
Snapshot · close of July 31, 2026
S&P 500
7,489.72
▲ 4th up month
Narrow, AI-led highs
10yr Treasury
4.743%
▲ +32bp in July
Highest since Jan 2025
30yr Treasury
5.25%
▲ 19-year high
Bear steepener
Fed Funds
3.50–3.75
→ 5th straight hold
9–3, dissents want +25
CPI y/y
3.5%
▼ from 4.2% peak
Core 2.6% · next Aug 12
Gold
$4,107
▲ 1st up month in 5
Real yields capping it
BTC/USD
~$64.0K
▼ 49% from ATH
$4.8B ETF outflow YTD
DXY
~100.1
▼ off 101.6 high
Softening on weak GDP
WTI Crude
$84.67
▼ from $113 peak
Hormuz still unresolved
Unemployment
4.2%
→ falling wrong way
Participation 61.5%
Q2 GDP (adv)
1.5%
▼ vs 2.1% exp
Growth cracking first
2s10s
+44bp
▲ steepening
Bear steepener, not bull
Pick a stage — the chart, arrows and cards all follow
Six stages · Q3 2026 → Q3 2029 · illustrative model, not a forecast of levels
Market
Economy
Bonds
Commodities
Gold
BTC
Action board — every sector sorted into one bucket
Full rotation matrix — 11 sectors plus the non-equity sleeve, across all six stages
Buy
Get ready to buy
Hold / ready to sell
Sell
Stay away
| Asset |
Stage 4
Q3–Q4 '26 · now |
Stage 5
Q1–Q2 '27 |
Stage 6
Q3–Q4 '27 |
Stage 1
Q1–Q2 '28 |
Stage 2
Q3–Q4 '28 |
Stage 3
Q1–Q3 '29 |
All six stages at a glance
| Stage |
Window |
What the economy is doing |
Stocks / Bonds / Comdty |
Sector leadership |
Crypto & gold |
What moves us off Stage 4 — watch these, not the narrative
Accelerant — pulls Stage 5 into Q4 2026
A September hike lands. Or Hormuz closes for real and WTI reclaims $100, dragging headline CPI back above 4%. Or the 30yr takes out 5.50% and equity multiples finally react to the discount rate.
Extender — stretches Stage 4 into mid-2027
Core PCE keeps printing 0.1–0.2% m/m, the hawks fold, and AI capex keeps carrying earnings. Growth of 1.5% with cooling inflation is soft-landing shaped, and the Fed gets to stay put without breaking anything.
The thing that invalidates the whole map
A bond stage that never arrives. If the long end stays bid at 5%+ through the downturn on fiscal supply, Stage 1's "bonds lead" leg fails and duration stops working as the recession hedge. Watch 30yr behavior on the first bad payroll print — that's the tell.
The crypto clock runs on its own
The next halving is ~April 2028. BTC has historically bottomed 12–18 months ahead of it — which lands in the Stage 6 / Stage 1 window, well before equities bottom. Crypto likely turns first this cycle, not last.
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Stage dates are a working model built from current macro data and classical rotation theory — they are not predictions, and cycles routinely compress, stretch, or skip stages entirely. Curve values in the chart are illustrative shapes on a 0–100 scale, not price or index forecasts. Nothing here is investment advice.